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:: Volume 10, Issue 35 (1-2017) ::
jwmseir 2017, 10(35): 51-64 Back to browse issues page
Evaluation of Statistical downscaling method in simulation of climate change of Karkheh basin up to the Karkheh dam
Massoud Goodarzi * , Majid Hoseini , Mansur Parekar
Abstract:   (8816 Views)

In recent decades the rapid growth of industrial activities has caused imbalance in climate of the earth which is so called named climate change. This phenomenon directly affects meteorological parameters such as temperature and precipitation. The objective of this research is investigation of the impacts of climate change on precipitation and maximum and minimum temperatures in Karkheh River Basin during the period of 2010-2039. The representative climate model of the region using AOGCM and observed data period of 1971-2000 was selected. Comparison of performance indicators of few AOGCM models for rainfall and temperature simulation showed that generally HadCM3 model is suitable for the region using synoptic and climatological weather stations of the region. Statistical and   regression downscaling was carried out for the selected AOGCM. Statistical and regression downscaling was performed using statistically dynamic model of SDSM. The final results for near future, 2010-2039, shows 2% reduction in rainfall for both synoptic stations of Kermanshah and Khoramabad in the north of the basin and 4% reduction in Hamidieh climatological weather station in the south of the basin.  The increase in maximum temperature for above stations are estimated as 119 and 3% and increase in minimum temperature are 24,4 and 1% respectively. Using HadCM3 and SDSM for near future, 2010-2039, simulation shows that as we move from north to the south of the basin (colder climate to warmer climate) the effects of climate change on maximum and minimum temperature are less pronounced while the trend for rainfall, although small, is opposite and is 2% for the north and 4% for the south.

Keywords: Climate change, downscaling, Karkheh River Basin, SDSM, HadCM3, AOGCM
Full-Text [PDF 1036 kb]   (2096 Downloads)    
Type of Study: Research | Subject: Special
Received: 2015/08/6 | Accepted: 2016/09/10 | Published: 2016/12/21
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Goodarzi M, Hoseini M, Parekar M. Evaluation of Statistical downscaling method in simulation of climate change of Karkheh basin up to the Karkheh dam . jwmseir 2017; 10 (35) :51-64
URL: http://jwmsei.ir/article-1-657-en.html


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Creative Commons License This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
Volume 10, Issue 35 (1-2017) Back to browse issues page
مجله علوم ومهندسی آبخیزداری ایران Iranian Journal of Watershed Management Science and Engineering
به اطلاع کلیه نویسندگان ، محققین و داوران  محترم  می رساند:

با عنایت به تصمیم  هیئت تحریریه مجله علمی پژوهشی علوم و مهندسی آبخیزداری فرمت تهیه مقاله به شکل پیوست در بخش راهنمای نویسندگان تغییر کرده است. در این راستا، از تاریخ ۱۴۰۳/۰۱/۲۱ کلیه مقالات ارسالی فقط در صورتی که طبق راهنمای نگارش جدید تنظیم شده باشد مورد بررسی قرار خواهد گرفت.
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