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:: Volume 10, Issue 33 (7-2016) ::
jwmseir 2016, 10(33): 11-18 Back to browse issues page
Daily Discharge Forecast of Aharchay River using M5 Model Trees and Its Comparing with Elman Neural Networks (ENN)
Mohammad Reza Abdollah Pourazad , Mohammad Taghi Sattari , Rasoul Mirabbasi *
Abstract:   (9556 Views)

The correct estimation of river discharge is an important issue in forecasting of drought and floods, designing of water structures, dam reservoir operation and sediment control. For this reason, water resources managers used intelligent techniques such as Artificial Neural Networks and data mining methods such as Decision Tree to reliably estimate the discharge in a river. In this study, the Elman Neural Networks (ENN) and M5 model trees were used to forecast daily discharge of Aharchay River. The daily discharge data of Aharchay River measured at the Orange hydrometric station was used for modeling. The results showed that for the forecasting discharge of one day ahead, the ENN method presents more accurate results in compression with M5 model. For forecasting discharge of one day ahead, the best scenario of ENN model with a relatively complicated structure of 9-3-1 that indicating 9 nodes in input layer, 3 nodes in hidden layer and 1 node in output layer, the calculated error measures were R2=0.90, RMSE=0.028 (m3/s) and MAE=0.001 (m3/s). The corresponding values for M5 model with only two input parameters including the discharge of current and last day, were R2=0.83, RMSE=0.734 (m3/s) and MAE=0.317 (m3/s). Comparing the performance of ENN and M5 models indicated that, however the ENN approach may present more accurate results than the M5 model tree, but the M5 model provides more understandable, applicable and simple linear relation in forecasting daily discharge. In addition, the number of required input parameter for M5 model is less than ENN model. Thus, the M5 model tree can be used as an alternative method in forecasting daily discharge.

Keywords: Data Mining, Elman Neural Network, Decision Tree Model, Modelling
Full-Text [PDF 618 kb]   (1722 Downloads)    
Type of Study: Research | Subject: Special
Received: 2014/03/10 | Accepted: 2016/05/4 | Published: 2016/06/19
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Abdollah Pourazad M R, Sattari M T, Mirabbasi R. Daily Discharge Forecast of Aharchay River using M5 Model Trees and Its Comparing with Elman Neural Networks (ENN). jwmseir 2016; 10 (33) :11-18
URL: http://jwmsei.ir/article-1-267-en.html


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Creative Commons License This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
Volume 10, Issue 33 (7-2016) Back to browse issues page
مجله علوم ومهندسی آبخیزداری ایران Iranian Journal of Watershed Management Science and Engineering
به اطلاع کلیه نویسندگان ، محققین و داوران  محترم  می رساند:

با عنایت به تصمیم  هیئت تحریریه مجله علمی پژوهشی علوم و مهندسی آبخیزداری فرمت تهیه مقاله به شکل پیوست در بخش راهنمای نویسندگان تغییر کرده است. در این راستا، از تاریخ ۱۴۰۳/۰۱/۲۱ کلیه مقالات ارسالی فقط در صورتی که طبق راهنمای نگارش جدید تنظیم شده باشد مورد بررسی قرار خواهد گرفت.
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