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:: Volume 9, Issue 31 (1-2016) ::
jwmseir 2016, 9(31): 98-110 Back to browse issues page
The application of Artificial Neural Networks techniques in the rainfall prediction
Gholamabbas Fallah Ghalhari * , Fahimeh Shakeri
Abstract:   (8650 Views)

The aim of this research is the rainfall prediction of Khorasan Razavi province using artificial neural network. At the first step, the time series of average regional rainfall using Kriging method in the desired time period was calculated. In the next step, time series of climatic predictors including Sea Level Pressure (SLP), Sea Surface Temperature (SST), Sea Surface Pressure gradient (SLP), the difference between sea surface temperature and 1000 hPa level, Sea Surface Temperature gradient (SST), Air Temperature At 700 hpa, thickness between 500 and 1000 hpa level, Relative Humidity at 300 hpa, outgoing long wave radiation, Precipitable water, meridional wind and zonal wind in the different time steps were obtained. In continue the relation between average regional rainfall and climatic predictors using Pearson’s correlation coefficient were calculated. After identifying of the appropriate predictors, artificial neural network model was calibrated from 1970 to 1997. Finally, model was tested in the period between 1998-2007. The model that used in this research has an input layer, one hidden Layer and an output layer. Results reveal those artificial neural networks are promising and efficient. Root mean square error for this model was obtained 6.9 millimeters.

Keywords: Rainfall prediction, Root mean square error, Kriging method, artificial neural network, Pearson’s correlation coefficient.
Full-Text [PDF 769 kb]   (1722 Downloads)    
Type of Study: Research | Subject: Special
Received: 2014/02/19 | Accepted: 2016/03/5 | Published: 2016/05/3
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Fallah Ghalhari G, Shakeri F. The application of Artificial Neural Networks techniques in the rainfall prediction. jwmseir 2016; 9 (31) :98-110
URL: http://jwmsei.ir/article-1-249-en.html


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Volume 9, Issue 31 (1-2016) Back to browse issues page
مجله علوم ومهندسی آبخیزداری ایران Iranian Journal of Watershed Management Science and Engineering
به اطلاع کلیه نویسندگان ، محققین و داوران  محترم  می رساند:

با عنایت به تصمیم  هیئت تحریریه مجله علمی پژوهشی علوم و مهندسی آبخیزداری فرمت تهیه مقاله به شکل پیوست در بخش راهنمای نویسندگان تغییر کرده است. در این راستا، از تاریخ ۱۴۰۳/۰۱/۲۱ کلیه مقالات ارسالی فقط در صورتی که طبق راهنمای نگارش جدید تنظیم شده باشد مورد بررسی قرار خواهد گرفت.
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